Re: copyright expiration as a spur to creativity

Michael Bradley <michael[_at_]vision-soft.com> wrote:
>
> No, that's not what I meant to say. I only meant that the
> *effectiveness* of short terms in "spurring creativity" can only be
> determined by IP creators, who will or won't be more creative as the
> term changes. Similarly, the *effectiveness* of agricultural subsidies
> in controlling the kinds and amounts of crops can only be determined by
> what the farmers plant.

But how much incentive do you really think going from say life+50 to life+70 is to the typical content creator? If you assume a 25 year expected life span (i.e. use the corp/work-for-hire 75/95 years), and you discount a constant income stream over those 20 years, you get approximately a 5% increase in expected return. Of course, this is very liberal, since most content creators cannot realistically expect anything between years 75 and 95.

Needless to say, the parties standing to gain the most in any increase in copyright term are those whose copyrights are getting ready to enter the public domain. And of course, in that case incentive to create is irrelevant, since the content was created 75 years ago.

> My argument is that very few of those who live by selling rights to
> their IP support shorter terms (big surprise). Arguing, as so many have
> in this thread, the shorter terms will increase creativity seems, um,
> dumb. It's demonstrably contrary to simple fact.

So? The question is how much is it really worth to them? And the answer in economic terms is almost nothing.

> To my mind, the arguable issue is what does society want from IP
> and how much is it willing to pay for it.

To my mind, the question is rather who would gain if term were increased, and who would lose. My position is that current content providers would probably come out close to zero, as material entering the PD has some value to them, and at most the cost to them is near zero of not increasing term.

-- 
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Bruce E. Hayden                      bhayden[_at_]acm.org               
Phoenix, Arizona                     bhayden[_at_]copatlaw.com
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